Chances of global warming to 1.5C within five years doubles under new modelling

Global temperatures have a 20 per cent change of reaching 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, according to new analysis from the World Meteorological Organisation which doubles the likelihood from an earlier assessment. Analysis last year from the Met Office, which led on the new report, put the likelihood at 10 per cent. The Met Office said the higher figure was produced by using models from ten different climate centres around the world for the first time. The Paris Agreement, which governments signed up to in 2015, aims to limit global warming to 1.5C and at least 2C, based on averages over a 30-year period. Current warming is at 1C, which the WMO said would continue over the next five years, with a one in five chance that one year would hit 1.5C and a 70 per cent chance that one month would. “This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. The predictions take into account natural variations, such as the El Nino climate cycle, as well as human impact. They do not take into account changes in greenhouse gas emissions from the coronavirus lockdown. The models also suggest that almost all areas are likely to be warmer than the recent past, with the Sahel and high latitude regions wetter. Professor Adam Scaife, the head of long range prediction at the Met Office, said: “This is an exciting new scientific capability. As human-induced climate change grows, it is becoming even more important for governments and decision makers to understand the current climate risks on an annually-updated basis.”

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